| Abstract: Uncertainty in hydrological modeling has played a significant role in assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted streamflows is more likely lies in climatic modelling depending on the chosen Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), choice of the bias correction method, the assumed initial and boundary conditions, the chosen greenhouse gas emission scenarios and scenarios of future socio-economic development. Also, there are uncertainties related to the hydrological modeling scheme caused by input hydrological data, hydrological model structures and parameterization of hydrological model. In this research, the uncertainties the projected streamflows due to climate change are addressed by the direct variance method since this technique is capable for assessing different sources of uncertainties nested into the hydroclimatic modelling chain. In the case of climatic modelling four RCMs are used to derive inputs for hydrological models at river basin spatial scale under different greenhouse gasses emission scenarios. Namely, the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 pathways are used for this purpose. For hydrological modelling, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRSM) and the 3DNet Catch hydrological model are applied. The research is carried out for the Lim River basin, while the simulations covered the 2011-2040 time frame with respect to the bassline time period 1961-1990. |